Hightower Ags (short version)
Share
GRAIN OUTLOOKS
SOYBEANS: Brazil confirms record crop size; big meal deliveries emerge; weak
CORN: Prices are eroding and this may bring a steady diet of selling.
WHEAT: Wheat headed lower, but beware of periodic short covering rallies
LIVESTOCK OUTLOOKS
CATTLE: Overbought but still in solid uptrend; beef prices choppy
HOGS: Weights are a little high and demand not as strong as expected; weak
OVERNIGHT PRICE CHANGES
CORN -3.0
SOYBEANS -6.0
BEAN OIL -0.2
SOYMEAL -1.4
GRIAN MARKETS - Today's Guidance
SOYBEANS: The technical picture remains weak for meal and soybeans with the break under the February low for May meal leaving 250.80 as next downside objective. Selling resistance for July soybeans drops down to 954 3/4 and 962 1/2 with 893 as next objective. Use 881 3/4 as next objective for November soybeans with 929 1/4 and 933 1/4 as selling resistance.
CORN: Traders see ending stocks near unchanged for tomorrow morning but this forecast includes weaker demand numbers (especially export) and a lower production forecast by about 35 million bushels. If the "re-survey" shows production unchanged, the market is vulnerable to some bearish surprise for the report. Given the lagging pace of export sales and shipments, corn remains vulnerable to selling pressure whenever the dollar rallies. That is the case this morning and old crop contracts appear headed for a test of the 360 level, just above the early February lows. The December contract may find better support due to the wet spring weather and it could hold above its February lows. May corn support comes in at 365 and 359. December corn support is near 395 1/2.
WHEAT: A minor downtrend has developed in wheat over the past week. The fact that this is happening so close to the early February low at 480 3/4 in the May contract may embolden funds and other specs to become more aggressive on the sell side. However, changes on the supply/demand report or a turn lower in the dollar would likely bring a wave of short covering. Remain on the short side in wheat, but be quick to take profits near the February lows. First support in the May contract is at 472 with first resistance now down a bit to near 504 1/2 to 505 3/4.
LIVESTOCK - Today's Guidance
CATTLE: The market is overbought and beef prices are beginning to show some weakness so we can not rule out a short-term correction. On the weekly continuation chart, 94.77 becomes next key resistance level with close-in support for April cattle at 93.55.
HOGS: June hog support is back at 80.52 and 79.40. April hog support should emerge near 70.95.
TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS
SOYBEANS: Consider selling minor corrective rallies.
CORN: Erosion is hard to stop in the corn market after it starts gaining momentum, and that appears to be where we are at right now. Hold off on buying, and look for continued erosion in call premiums in old crop contracts.
WHEAT: None.
***NOTICE: Above is a condensed version of The Hightower Report's daily reserch.
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of The Hightower Report is strictly prohibited.